Sunday, 4 November 2012

48 Hours And Counting

I suppose I should really put out some predictions for Tuesday, since I've been banging on it at such length for at least the last two years.  Others are encouraged to do the same in comments; whomever comes closest to the final result will win some kind of entirely nebulous prize.


Winner: Obama.
Proportion of popular vote: 47.6%.
Electoral votes: 275 (i.e. a real squeaker).
Margin in Ohio: Less than 2%0.2% (whoops!) of total vote.
Length of time Republicans contest result: 3 weeks.
Supreme Court majority will: be assholes about the whole thing.

Basically, I'm expecting Virginia and Florida to go for Romney (along with Colorado), Pennsylvania to be end up going for Obama by too great a margin for the Romney Campaign to see any point in contesting it.

Ohio, though, will go to Obama, but narrowly enough for the GOP to make all sorts of noises about it being too close to call and there needing to be recounts.  Like with Florida in 2000, only with voter suppression having prevented the true winner from winning by more rather than flipping the whole thing, and with five cockmonkeys on the Supreme Court who'll want to overturn the results, rather than ensuring it stays the same through the most chickenshit method possible.

(I'm not predicting an actual overturning, for the record, but a few weeks of political wrangling and general soul-crushing doesn't seem beyond the boundaries of possibility.)

Anyway, I'll probably be liveblogging the election itself, at least insofar as I'll have access to my computer whilst I watch the coverage and drink myself into oblivion.  Kick-off time will be 20:00 GMT, to give me time to get back from tutoring the minds of tomorrow.


Dan Edmunds said...

What time are you predicting the results to be announced? Trying to decide if I should stay up late or get up early...

SpaceSquid said...

The not entirely helpful answer is "when Ohio declares"; I don't see it being any earlier than that. I can't find any record of what time they came in back in 2008, though.

As something of a wild guestimate, I'd say we'll know between 2 and 3am GMT.

Tomsk said...

The BBC have some estimated timings:

It's definitely a stay up late deal but I can't imagine the result will be known until 5am or so.

I predict 294 votes for Obama.

SpaceSquid said...

Looking at those timnings, Tomsk is probably right that we're looking at 5am or later for official confirmation; though by 3am the exit polls should give us a pretty good idea for every state. That said, my prediction of 3am and prediction of near parity in Ohio directly contradict each other, so what do I know?

gwils4 said...

So... worked out how to comment on the blog! I've learned something too: American badgers don't look the same as ours which might help to explain the Wisconsin logo.

Regarding the comment on eligible voters there are several million voters who only get counted if the result is close because their status is undetermined - it could add a whole new dimension to this election that will most likely baffle entirely the rest of the democratic world!

Of course there are also over half a million people in Washington DC who complain about "taxation without representation" because they do not get the vote

SpaceSquid said...

They do say that America and Britain are two countries separated by the common badger.

I thought DC has three electoral votes. Am I missing something?